POP MART (9992.HK) Investment Framework Analysis: The Rise of a Global IP Entertainment Platform

This article was completed with the assistance of Gemini DeepResearch.

Below is Baillie Gifford’s “Ten Questions” research framework for stock investment, used to assess whether a company is worth investing in:

1. Is there room to at least double sales over the next five years?
2. What happens over ten years and beyond?
3. What is your competitive advantage?
4. Is your business culture clearly differentiated? Is it adaptable?
5. Why do your customers like you? What societal considerations are most likely to prove material to the long-term growth of the company?
6. Are your returns worthwhile?
7. Will they rise or fall?
8. How do you deploy capital?
9. How could it be worth five times as much, or more?
10. Why doesn’t the market realize this?

Introduction: Building the Analytical Framework #

This report aims to conduct a comprehensive and in-depth expert evaluation of POP MART International Group Ltd. (9992.HK) as a long-term investment opportunity. To ensure the analysis is rigorous and forward-looking, this assessment will strictly follow the “Ten Questions” investment framework proposed by the renowned growth investment firm, Baillie Gifford. This framework is designed to identify extraordinary companies with exceptional growth potential and durable competitive advantages.

The core thesis of this report will revolve around a key judgment: POP MART is in the early stages of a profound transformation, evolving from a successful Chinese trendy toy retailer into a globally recognized, vertically integrated intellectual property (IP) entertainment platform. This analysis will delve into whether the current market has fully recognized and correctly priced this fundamental shift.

Section 1: The Five-Year Growth Runway #

(Question 1: Is there room to at least double sales over the next five years?) #

Based on an analysis of POP MART’s historical performance, core growth drivers, and macroeconomic trends, the conclusion is clear: the company not only has the potential to double its sales within the next five years but is likely to exceed this target. Its growth path is paved by explosive international market expansion, successful product category diversification, and the global “Kidult” consumption trend.

Historical Context: The DNA of Hyper-Growth #

POP MART has demonstrated an extraordinary capacity for exponential growth, laying a solid foundation for its future expansion. The company’s revenue surged from ¥158 million in 2017 to ¥2.513 billion in 2020, a staggering compound annual growth rate. After a brief slowdown, the company returned to a hyper-growth trajectory in 2024, with full-year revenue soaring by 106.9% year-on-year to a record ¥13.04 billion. This performance not only marks a return to astonishing growth momentum but also signifies that its business has reached a new level of scale.

Primary Growth Engine: Internationalization #

The most powerful engine for POP MART’s future growth is undoubtedly its overseas business. In 2024, revenue from markets outside Mainland China (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) grew by a phenomenal 375.2% to ¥5.07 billion, with its share of total revenue jumping from 16.9% in 2023 to 38.9%. This clearly indicates that internationalization has transformed from a strategic vision into a core performance contributor.

This expansion is not a passive export model but an active, physical-channel-led globalization strategy. The company is rapidly rolling out its network of offline direct-to-consumer stores and “ROBOSHOPs” in core global markets, including France, the UK, Italy, Spain, and Southeast Asian countries. By opening stores in iconic locations like the Louvre in Paris and Oxford Street in London, this strategy effectively builds a high-end brand image in the minds of global consumers. Analyst reports are also bullish on its overseas prospects, with some predicting its long-term overseas revenue potential could approach ¥10 billion, and the pace of store openings will accelerate significantly in the future.

Secondary Growth Lever: Product and Category Diversification #

In parallel with geographic expansion, POP MART is successfully extending its business from its core “blind box” figurines to a broader range of product areas. This strategy aims to reduce reliance on a single product format and enhance the commercial value of existing IPs. In 2024, the plush toy category experienced explosive growth of 1,289%, with revenue reaching ¥2.83 billion, accounting for 21.7% of total revenue. This proves the company can successfully translate the appeal of its IP assets into different product forms.

Meanwhile, the high-end MEGA Collection series has also entered a mature operational phase, with revenue growing by 146.1% year-on-year to ¥1.68 billion. Furthermore, the company is actively exploring new categories like POP BLOCKS and POP CARDS, which are expected to open up new market segments and contribute fresh revenue streams.

Market Context: Riding Long-Term Consumer Trends #

POP MART’s growth is not an isolated phenomenon but is built on the macro backdrop of steady growth in the global toy market. The global toy market is projected to grow from $114.4 billion in 2024 to $203.1 billion by 2034, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6%.

More importantly, POP MART’s positioning perfectly aligns with the high-growth “Kidult” trend—adults buying toys for themselves. In 2023, this consumer group contributed $6.7 billion to toy sales in the US alone. POP MART explicitly targets an audience aged 14 and above, allowing it to directly benefit from the continued expansion of this segment, which has high purchasing power and independent aesthetic tastes.

The significance of this strategic positioning is profound. The staggering 375.2% growth in overseas markets is more than just a financial figure; it is powerful proof of the universal appeal of POP MART’s IPs across cultural boundaries. The global explosion in popularity of its IP “THE MONSTERS” (Labubu), for example, shows that the company has developed and established a replicable, successful model for launching and scaling IPs in international markets. Initially, POP MART’s success in China might have been attributed to its cultural specificity or a domestic fad. However, the explosive growth across multiple continents in 2024 proves its IPs can resonate in vastly different cultural environments—from Asian markets to the storefronts of the Louvre in Paris. This significantly de-risks the investment, elevating POP MART from a “China consumption story” to a “global IP story.” Consequently, its Total Addressable Market is no longer confined to the Chinese toy market but expands to the global “Kidult” and licensed merchandise markets, which are several orders of magnitude larger.

Similarly, the diversification into categories like plush toys is a strategic move to increase the “wallet share” of existing fans and lower the entry barrier for new users. While blind box figures attract a specific customer base with their collectibility and element of surprise, plush toys have a broader audience and are often used as gifts or for emotional comfort. The 1,289% growth rate in this category shows the company is successfully leveraging its IP assets to enter adjacent high-volume product areas, making its revenue base more stable and diversified.

In summary, the goal of doubling sales in the next five years is entirely achievable. Rapid internationalization, proven product diversification capabilities, and the strong tailwind of the “Kidult” market provide the company with multiple, powerful, and sustainable drivers for high-speed growth.

Section 2: The Ten-Year Vision #

(Question 2: What happens over ten years and beyond?) #

Looking ten years and beyond, POP MART’s strategic ambition extends far beyond being a toy company. The management’s vision is to build a global, integrated entertainment platform centered on IP, with a business model that benchmarks against industry giants like Disney, Marvel, and Nintendo, who have built formidable business moats through grand world-building and ingenious creativity. POP MART is transforming from a trendy toy company into a “comprehensive operating platform for the entire IP industry chain.”

Building an Entertainment Ecosystem #

To realize this grand blueprint, POP MART is actively developing a diverse range of entertainment experiences around its core IP assets, aiming to deepen the IP’s substance and storytelling, and to forge deeper emotional connections with consumers.

• Theme Parks: The opening of its first city park is a key step towards offline immersive experiences. The park aims to create a physical world for the IPs, allowing consumers to personally experience their stories and charm, thereby transforming the IPs from static collectibles into living characters. This strategy is identical to how Disney reinforces its IP empire through theme parks. It is projected that the first phase of the park alone could contribute ¥200 million to ¥400 million in revenue, with the subsequent operation of the second phase bringing even greater scale.
• Gaming Business: The self-developed mobile game “Dream Homeworld” is another important pillar in the company’s online entertainment efforts. It is not only a potential revenue source but is also seen as an “online promotional channel” that can enhance fan interaction and storytelling with the IPs. More strategically, the game can serve as a low-cost testing platform to gauge market acceptance of new character designs or scene concepts before committing them to physical production, thereby increasing the success rate of IP development.
• IP Licensing and Adaptation: In the long run, the greatest commercialization potential lies in the IP licensing and content adaptation market. The scale of this market far exceeds that of toys. It is estimated that in China, the IP licensing market is about 2-3 times the size of the art toy industry, while the IP adaptation entertainment market (such as film and animation) is a staggering 7-15 times larger. As the global influence of POP MART’s top IPs continues to grow, entering these high-margin sectors will be a natural evolution and the ultimate goal for it to become a true entertainment giant.

Long-Term Economic Model #

Over a ten-year horizon, POP MART’s revenue structure is expected to undergo a fundamental change. While direct-to-consumer (DTC) product sales will remain the cornerstone of the business, the proportion of revenue from high-margin businesses such as theme park tickets, in-game purchases, and IP licensing fees will increase significantly. This shift will completely change the company’s valuation logic, moving it away from being valued as a traditional retailer or toy manufacturer and closer to entertainment and media companies that enjoy much higher valuation multiples.

The deep logic behind this strategic layout is that theme parks and games are not simple brand extensions but strategic investments in building a “story moat.” For a company built on character IPs, its core vulnerability is that an IP might just be a passing fad, with its popularity fading over time, as warned by the initial revenue decline of its early core IP, “Molly.” Companies like Disney have successfully avoided this problem by embedding their characters in stories and experiences like movies and theme parks, creating a deep emotional bond that transcends the product itself. POP MART’s park and game are its first major attempts in this direction, providing narrative context to the IPs, giving them personality and life, and aiming to transform fleeting popularity into enduring brand value.

Furthermore, the data-driven decision-making capabilities honed in its retail business will become a unique advantage as it expands into entertainment. POP MART has built a global data mid-end through its DTC channels, enabling fine-grained member operations management. This “data-first” methodology is also being applied to overseas expansion, where e-commerce and B2B data are used to test new markets before committing to heavy-asset physical stores. It is foreseeable that the same approach will be used for its entertainment business: using the “Dream Homeworld” game for A/B testing of character designs or storylines, and analyzing park visitor data to see which IPs are most popular, thereby providing a basis for future content investment decisions. This approach can effectively mitigate the inherent creative risks in the entertainment industry.

In conclusion, POP MART’s ten-year vision is to evolve into a global entertainment company. If successful, its business scale will be far greater than today, more diversified, more profitable, and protected by a more insurmountable competitive moat built on stories and immersive experiences.

Section 3: The Competitive Moat #

(Question 3: What is your competitive advantage?) #

POP MART’s competitive advantage is not a single factor but a multi-layered, mutually reinforcing moat composed of a proprietary IP engine, a direct-to-consumer channel flywheel, and strong brand equity. This system allows it to maintain a significant lead in an increasingly competitive market.

Core Advantage: The Integrated IP Engine #

POP MART’s most central moat lies in its end-to-end, vertically integrated system for IP discovery, incubation, operation, and commercialization. It has long evolved beyond the scope of a retailer into an efficient IP platform.

• IP Acquisition: The company employs a diversified IP sourcing strategy to ensure a continuous supply of creative assets. This includes collaborating with world-renowned artists, discovering emerging designers through a professional global scouting team, and developing IPs in-house at the Pop Mart Design Center (PDC). This multi-pronged approach builds a rich and dynamic IP pipeline.
• IP Screening and Incubation: The company has formed a mature, replicable, full-chain system for IP screening and monetization. This system is based on comprehensive data analysis, prediction, and a precise grasp of market trends, which effectively increases the success rate of IP promotion and reduces the inherent “hit uncertainty” of the creative industry.
• IP Commercialization: The company firmly controls the IP commercialization process, primarily selling through its own channels. This model allows it to capture the maximum value created by the IP. The dominance of its own IPs is reflected in the financial data: in 2024, proprietary and exclusive IPs (consolidated as “Artist IPs” in financial reports) contributed 97.6% of revenue.

Reinforcing Advantage: The Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Flywheel Effect #

The company’s DTC strategy of “cutting out the middleman” and reaching users directly through its own stores, Roboshops, and online e-commerce is a vital part of its competitive advantage. This vast DTC network brings two key benefits:

1. Higher Profit Margins: By controlling the distribution channels, the company can capture the channel profits that would otherwise go to distributors and retailers in a traditional model. This is the structural reason for its industry-leading gross and net margins.
2. Data Feedback Loop: Every offline store and online touchpoint becomes a “laboratory” for collecting real-time consumer preference data. Sales data is fed directly back to the IP screening and design teams, creating a powerful, self-reinforcing flywheel: data from popular products guides the creation of more popular products, continuously improving the “hit rate” and operational efficiency.

Note: The four head IPs each generated over ¥1 billion in revenue.

Cultural Resonance and Brand Equity #

POP MART has successfully elevated its products from mere toys to a medium of self-expression, a personalized label, and even a form of “social currency” for the younger generation. This brand positioning transcends the functional attributes of the product itself, establishing a strong emotional connection with consumers. Its marketing strategy borrows from luxury goods logic, creating “desire” and “story” around the characters, turning affordable items into coveted collectibles.

Competitive Landscape: Leader in a “One Superpower, Many Strong” Market #

The Chinese art toy market exhibits a “one superpower, many strong” competitive landscape, with POP MART firmly established as the “superpower” leader due to its revenue scale and operational efficiency. Although competitors like TOPTOY have achieved high growth through differentiation and low-price strategies, POP MART possesses an unshakeable structural advantage in brand influence, the depth and breadth of its IP portfolio, and its integrated business model.

A deeper analysis reveals that the 97.6% revenue contribution from proprietary IPs is the most critical metric defining its competitive advantage. It is not only the direct source of high profit margins but also the cornerstone of the company’s strategic autonomy. A company dependent on third-party licensing (like many traditional toy manufacturers) has its fate tied to the licensors and must share a significant portion of the revenue. By owning its IPs, POP MART controls its own destiny, able to decide what products to develop, which markets to enter, and what entertainment formats to try. More importantly, it means that almost all the economic value created by a hit IP accrues directly to POP MART’s shareholders. This is a fundamentally superior business model to that of a licensed merchandise manufacturer.

At the same time, its DTC network constitutes a formidable barrier to entry for potential competitors. An emerging artist or a small brand can hardly gain equivalent market exposure and distribution channels, often having to rely on low-margin, data-lagging wholesale channels. In contrast, POP MART’s network of over 500 stores and 2,300 Roboshops worldwide, along with its massive online community, provides an unparalleled platform for launching new IPs on a large scale. This makes POP MART the preferred partner for top artists, further strengthening its IP pipeline and creating a virtuous cycle that is difficult for competitors to replicate.

In summary, POP MART’s competitive advantage is a deep and multi-dimensional moat, founded on its proprietary IP engine and continuously reinforced by a powerful DTC data flywheel and profound brand equity. This integrated system creates strong barriers to entry and forms the basis of its exceptional profitability.

Section 4: The Innovative Culture #

(Question 4: Is your business culture clearly differentiated? Is it adaptable?) #

POP MART’s corporate culture is deeply imprinted with its founder’s vision and the constant evolution throughout its development journey. This culture is centered on a founder-driven entrepreneurial spirit, marked by exceptional adaptability, and manifested in a unique way that combines creative passion with operational discipline.

Founder-Driven Vision and Entrepreneurial Spirit #

The company is led by founder Wang Ning, whose entrepreneurial journey is itself a textbook case of continuous adaptation and iteration. POP MART’s predecessor was a “grid store,” a consignment retail model. Wang Ning quickly identified the fundamental flaws of this model: lack of quality control and low profit margins. It was this early trial and error that directly led to the birth of POP MART—a retail platform based on centralized procurement, unified quality control, and a consistent brand image, inspired by trendy retailers like Hong Kong’s Log On. This origin story vividly demonstrates a cultural DNA that is unafraid of failure, learns from practice, and pivots decisively.

Adaptability as a Core Belief #

A look back at POP MART’s history is a history of successfully adapting to market changes:

1. From Consignment Store to Trendy Retail Platform: Achieved the first fundamental upgrade of its business model.
2. From General Retail to IP Focus: After discovering that licensed IP products like Sonny Angel had higher growth and profits, the company decisively established an IP-centric development strategy.
3. From Reliance on a Single Hit to Building an IP Matrix: Initially heavily dependent on the “Molly” IP, the company, realizing the risk, successfully built a diversified portfolio including multiple top IPs like SKULLPANDA, DIMOO, and THE MONSTERS.
4. From Local Enterprise to Global Expansion: Quickly seized overseas market opportunities, actively transforming from a Chinese company into a global enterprise.
5. From Product Company to Entertainment Platform: Continuously expanding its business boundaries into broader entertainment fields like theme parks and games.

This series of successful strategic transformations proves that POP MART has a highly flexible and adaptable culture. It does not cling to any single business model but, with an almost obsessive passion, continuously pursues the greatest growth opportunities.

A Culture Focused on Long-Term Value #

The public statements of the company’s management have always emphasized creating long-term value. Founder Wang Ning has spoken of his hope to combine tradition with trends, integrating Chinese culture during internationalization to let the world feel the power of Chinese culture. The company’s General Manager of Public Affairs, Wang Tao, also stated, “We believe that only long-term investment in IP can continuously rejuvenate its value.” These statements point to a culture that values patience and strategic focus, rather than opportunistic pursuit of short-term gains. The composition of the executive team, with its diverse backgrounds in management, media, finance, and strategic investment, also supports the company’s long-term strategic development.

The uniqueness of this culture lies in its achievement of “structured creativity.” It combines the somewhat chaotic, explosive innovative energy of the artist’s world with the disciplined, data-driven execution required by modern retail and tech companies. The creative side is reflected in its vast network of artist collaborations and the uniqueness and emotional expression of its IP designs. The structured side is evident in its “replicable” IP screening system, the global data mid-end for supply chain and member management, and the rigorous methodology for systematically testing new markets. This fusion is very rare and extremely powerful. It allows the company to systematically manage the inherent uncertainty in the creative process, thereby increasing the “hit rate” of popular products while ensuring excellent operational efficiency. This constitutes its key cultural difference from competitors.

Therefore, POP MART’s corporate culture is distinctive for its founder-driven entrepreneurial spirit and its repeatedly proven, strong adaptability. It perfectly combines creative ambition with operational discipline, creating an environment built for continuous, long-term innovation and growth.

Section 5: Customer Connection and Social Context #

(Question 5: Why do your customers like you? What societal considerations are most likely to prove material to the long-term growth of the company?) #

POP MART’s success is rooted in its precise insight into and satisfaction of consumers’ deep psychological needs. At the same time, the company is actively responding to and seizing key social factors, especially the evolution of the regulatory environment and the opportunity to be a vehicle for cultural export, which will have a decisive impact on its long-term development trajectory.

The Deep Psychology of Customer Affinity #

When consumers buy POP MART products, they are not just buying a toy, but a complex emotional experience. Its appeal stems from several powerful psychological drivers:

1. Uncertainty and Surprise: The core “blind box” mechanism cleverly utilizes the human curiosity for the unknown and the desire for surprise. The uncertainty before opening the box can stimulate the brain to release dopamine, creating a sense of pleasure and excitement similar to the “win” in gambling or opening a gift, thus forming a powerful incentive and behavioral reinforcement loop.
2. Collecting Instinct and Sense of Achievement: Humans have an innate desire to collect. POP MART’s products are released in series and feature rare “hidden editions,” which directly triggers consumers’ collecting instinct and the psychological need for completion (the “closure principle” in Gestalt psychology). Completing a series or obtaining a rare item brings a strong sense of achievement and satisfaction, and this positive feedback further stimulates purchasing behavior.
3. Emotional Connection and Self-Expression: POP MART’s IP designs focus on emotional projection; they are designed as “talking” characters that can resonate with consumers. These cute, adorable, or uniquely characterized figures become an emotional anchor for consumers, compensating for loneliness in real life and providing a healing power. At the same time, collecting and displaying specific IPs has become a “personality tag,” a way of expressing “this is me” to the outside world.
4. Social Attributes and Sense of Belonging: Collecting, trading, and discussing POP MART figures has become an important social activity. Consumers with common hobbies form “interest-based communities” online and offline. The products themselves become “social currency” that facilitates communication, satisfying the deep-seated needs of young people to escape loneliness and seek group identity and belonging.

Material Social Factors: Risks and Opportunities #

At the social level, two major factors are crucial to POP MART’s long-term development:

• Opportunity: A Vehicle for Cultural Export: POP MART is rapidly emerging as an important representative of modern Chinese cultural export. As its global business expands, it showcases a new face of China’s creative industry to the world, which helps to enhance national soft power. This positioning as a “cultural export” may earn it implicit or explicit policy support in its internationalization process and add a grander narrative to its brand story.
• Managed Risk: Regulation and Consumer Protection: The “blind box” model, due to its potential for “addiction,” once raised concerns at the regulatory level, constituting a major social risk for the company. However, this risk has been largely mitigated. In 2023, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation officially released the “Guidelines for Regulating Blind Box Business Activities (for Trial Implementation).”
  • These guidelines provide a clear rule framework for the industry’s development, requiring operators to prominently display the value of goods, drawing rules, and probabilities; setting a negative list of prohibited sales for categories like drugs and live animals; and establishing a mechanism for protecting minors, such as prohibiting the sale of blind boxes to children under 8 years old. Shanghai’s guidelines even suggest that the price of a single blind box should generally not exceed ¥200.
  • The implementation of this regulatory framework, while imposing constraints on business practices, has, in the long run, ended the state of unregulated growth in the industry, turning uncertainty into certainty. By driving out bad actors, it has actually consolidated the market position of compliant, leading companies like POP MART.

The establishment of a clear regulatory framework is a major positive catalyst for POP MART, transforming a key potential risk into a competitive advantage. Before this, market concerns about a possible “one-size-fits-all” ban undoubtedly suppressed the company’s valuation. The final guidelines, focusing on enhancing transparency and protecting consumers rather than an outright ban, have paved the way for the healthy development of the industry. As the industry leader, POP MART is best positioned and resourced to meet these compliance requirements, which undoubtedly increase the operating costs and difficulty for new entrants and smaller competitors. Therefore, the implementation of regulation has actually served the triple purpose of “purifying” the industry, eliminating significant uncertainty, and strengthening the leader’s position, which is extremely beneficial for the company’s long-term development.

In summary, consumers’ love for POP MART stems from its products satisfying multiple deep psychological needs for surprise, collection, self-expression, and community belonging. The most significant social risk—regulatory uncertainty—has been largely eliminated, creating a stable and predictable operating environment for the company. At the same time, becoming a global ambassador for modern Chinese creative culture provides it with a powerful long-term tailwind.

Section 6: Quality of Financial Returns #

(Question 6: Are your returns worthwhile?) #

A review of POP MART’s key financial metrics leads to the conclusion that the company’s financial returns are not just “worthwhile,” but “excellent.” Its high and expanding profit margins, top-tier return on equity, robust balance sheet, and strong cash flow generation capabilities collectively paint a picture of a high-quality enterprise with a powerful economic engine.

Excellent Profitability Metrics #

• Gross Margin: The company’s gross margin is extremely rare in the consumer goods industry and continues to improve. In 2024, the gross margin reached a record 66.8%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points from 61.3% in 2023. This high level is a direct result of the structural advantages of its business model: a very high proportion of proprietary IPs (avoiding hefty licensing fees), efficient supply chain management, and strong brand pricing power.
• Net Margin: The high gross profit has effectively translated to the bottom line. In 2024, the company’s adjusted net profit reached ¥3.4 billion, corresponding to a net margin of about 26.1%. The net profit attributable to company owners increased by 188.8% year-on-year. This fully demonstrates the powerful operating leverage of its business model.
• Return on Equity (ROE): The company is extremely efficient at generating returns on shareholder capital. According to one data source, its return on equity is as high as 61.41%. This figure places it among the world’s top consumer goods companies, indicating that management excels at creating value with the capital invested by shareholders.

Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Flow #

• Balance Sheet: The company has a very healthy financial structure. As of December 31, 2024, total equity was ¥10.88 billion, while total liabilities were only ¥3.99 billion, indicating a very low leverage ratio. This provides ample financial flexibility for future expansion and for withstanding potential risks.
• Cash Flow: The business itself has a strong “blood-making” capability. In 2024, net cash flow from operating activities was as high as ¥4.95 billion. Ample internal cash flow allows it to fully support its ambitious global expansion plans without relying on external financing.

On a deeper level, the 66.8% gross margin is not just a financial figure; it is a quantitative manifestation of the company’s competitive moat. Traditional toy manufacturers or retailers typically have gross margins in the 30-40% range. POP MART’s nearly 70% gross margin is more akin to that of a software company or a luxury brand. This excess profit is possible because the company: one, owns its IPs, thus avoiding licensing fees to third parties; two, controls its distribution channels, thereby capturing retail-level profits; and three, has created a powerful brand for which consumers are willing to pay a premium. Therefore, gross margin is the clearest and most direct single indicator of the company’s structural advantages and pricing power.

In conclusion, POP MART’s financial return performance is exemplary. High and continuously expanding profit margins, an outstanding return on equity, a rock-solid balance sheet, and a steady stream of operating cash flow are all clear signs of a high-quality company with strong, sustainable profitability.

Section 7: The Future of Profitability #

(Question 7: Will returns rise or fall?) #

Looking ahead, POP MART’s profitability and return levels are highly likely to continue to rise. This positive outlook is driven by the combined push of three structural tailwinds: a favorable shift in the geographic revenue mix, significant operating leverage, and continuous optimization of the supply chain and product portfolio. Despite intensive capital investment in the short term, the long-term trend of margin expansion is clear.

Tailwind 1: Favorable Shift in Geographic Revenue Mix #

Continuous international expansion is the primary driver for future margin improvement. Historical data shows that the operating profit margin of the overseas business is already higher than that of the domestic business. For example, in the first half of 2023, the operating profit margin for the overseas business reached 21.0%, higher than the domestic business’s 20.6%. As the share of overseas revenue, which is growing at 375%, continues to increase in the total revenue mix, this structural shift will mathematically and naturally pull up the company’s overall blended profit margin.

Tailwind 2: Operating Leverage Effect #

As the company’s business scale continues to expand, its operating leverage will become increasingly prominent. Many of the company’s costs, such as corporate administrative expenses, IP R&D costs, and some marketing expenses, are expected to grow at a slower pace than revenue. This means a larger proportion of gross profit will be converted into net profit. Especially in digital entertainment businesses like gaming, once the initial development costs are covered, the subsequent marginal profit rate is extremely high, which will have a positive impact on overall profitability.

Tailwind 3: Supply Chain and Product Portfolio Optimization #

Management has cited supply chain cost optimization as one of the reasons for margin improvement. As production scale expands, the company’s bargaining power with upstream contract manufacturers will further increase, potentially reducing the unit production cost. At the same time, the company’s continued focus on high-value-added product lines like the MEGA Collection, and further increasing the revenue share of internally developed IPs (compared to externally collaborated IPs), will also support the maintenance and improvement of high gross margins.

Potential Headwind: Reinvestment Cycle #

It should be noted that the company is in an ambitious expansion phase. The rapid opening of new stores globally and heavy capital investment in new businesses like theme parks will generate significant capital expenditures and operating expenses in the short term. Newly opened stores and new business lines that are still in their incubation period will take some time to reach mature profitability levels, which may temporarily restrain the pace of margin expansion.

However, on balance, the company appears to be entering a “margin expansion supercycle” driven by a combination of powerful and durable tailwinds. First, the geographic mix shift towards high-margin overseas markets is a structural, multi-year trend. Second, as the company continues its high-speed growth, the advantages of economies of scale and operating leverage will become more pronounced. Third, the strategic shift to proprietary IPs is largely complete (at 97.6%), laying a solid foundation for high gross margins. Despite the high intensity of investment, the strong profitability of its mature businesses makes it highly likely that the company can still achieve overall margin expansion while supporting rapid growth. This combination of high-speed growth and margin expansion is the classic formula for explosive profit growth.

Therefore, the overall outlook for the future direction of returns is positive. Although it will go through an intensive investment period, the structural tailwinds from the increased share of international market revenue, operating leverage, and supply chain optimization strongly suggest that over the next five years, the company’s profit margin is more likely to rise than fall.

Section 8: Capital Allocation Strategy #

(Question 8: How do you deploy capital?) #

POP MART’s capital allocation strategy is clear, disciplined, and fully serves its long-term goal of maximizing value as a high-growth company. The company’s top priority is to reinvest its strong internally generated cash flow into high-return growth opportunities, rather than prematurely returning capital to shareholders.

Top Priority: Reinvesting for Growth #

The vast majority of the company’s capital allocation strategy is focused on supporting its immense organic growth opportunities.

• Global Retail Network Expansion: A significant portion of capital expenditure is used to open new physical stores and Roboshops worldwide. This is the most direct and important way to deploy capital to drive the international business engine.
• Investing in New Businesses: Capital is being used to build new pillars of the company’s entertainment ecosystem, including the development and operation of theme parks and R&D investment in games. These are strategic investments in the company’s long-term vision.
• IP Development and Acquisition: Investment in intangible assets—namely, discovering, signing, and internally developing new IPs—remains a core priority, aimed at continuously injecting new vitality into the creative pipeline. According to financial reports, expenditure on property, plant, and equipment in 2024 was ¥250 million, while investment related to intangible assets also remained at a high level.

Shareholder Returns: A Future Consideration #

In the current high-growth phase, direct shareholder returns (such as dividends and share buybacks) are not a priority for capital allocation. The 2024 annual financial report did not disclose any large-scale dividend payments or share buyback plans for that year. Although the company has a history of paying dividends, the current strategic focus is clearly on growth.

Given that the company can generate extremely high returns by reinvesting capital in its own business (as evidenced by its excellent ROE), this is a completely reasonable strategy that creates the most value for shareholders at this stage of development. When a company can reinvest at a rate higher than the shareholders’ opportunity cost, retaining earnings for growth is far wiser than distributing them as dividends. As the business gradually matures and the growth rate stabilizes in the future, it can be expected that the company will shift to a more balanced capital allocation policy, at which point regular shareholder returns will become possible.

Balance Sheet Management #

The company consistently maintains a strong and low-leverage balance sheet. At the end of 2024, total assets reached ¥14.87 billion, far exceeding total liabilities of ¥3.99 billion. This prudent financial management provides the company with great strategic flexibility and operational resilience, allowing it to fully pursue its growth objectives without being constrained by debt or high interest burdens.

The company’s capital allocation strategy is perfectly aligned with the model of a classic “compounder” in its high-growth phase. A company should only retain earnings if it can reinvest them at a rate higher than what shareholders could achieve elsewhere. POP MART’s extremely high return on equity indicates that every dollar of capital retained and reinvested in the business is creating enormous incremental value. Therefore, at this point in time, prioritizing reinvestment over dividends or buybacks is the most rational, value-maximizing decision for long-term shareholders. This also clearly indicates that management sees a long runway of high-return growth opportunities ahead.

In summary, POP MART’s capital allocation strategy is disciplined and fully focused on long-term value maximization. Its priority is to actively reinvest its strong internal cash flow into high-return growth projects, chief among them being global expansion and the construction of its entertainment ecosystem.

Section 9: The Path to Exponential Value Creation #

(Question 9: How could it be worth five times as much, or more?) #

Envisioning a “blue-sky scenario” where POP MART’s market value increases fivefold requires more than just linear business growth; it necessitates a fundamental re-evaluation of the company’s business model and market positioning. This leap can be achieved by accomplishing the following three key transformations:

• 1. Dominating the Global “Kidult” Market:
  • Path: Successfully execute the global expansion plan, becoming the undisputed leader in the “art toy” or “designer toy” category not only in China but also in key markets like North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia. This means expanding the current network of about 130 overseas stores to over 500 to 1,000 stores in core cities worldwide.
  • Scale: This would transform the current overseas business of about ¥5 billion into a business segment worth ¥25 billion to ¥50 billion, pushing the company’s total revenue well past the ¥50 billion mark.
• 2. Creating Enduring, Cross-Generational “Super IPs”:
  • Path: Successfully elevate at least two or three of its core IPs (e.g., THE MONSTERS/Labubu, SKULLPANDA, HIRONO) from popular toy lines to true global entertainment brands, with the majority of their revenue coming from non-physical products.
  • Scale: This means launching a successful animated series, a series of blockbuster mobile games generating hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenue, and a global licensing program (covering apparel, stationery, home goods, etc.) comparable to that of established Western brands. This would allow the company to tap deeply into the IP adaptation entertainment market, which is 7-15 times the size of the toy market.
• 3. Achieving an “Entertainment Platform” Valuation Re-rating:
  • Path: As the revenue structure shifts towards high-margin, recurring, or highly scalable businesses like theme parks, games, and IP licensing, the market will no longer value POP MART with the logic of a toy retailer (typically 15-25x P/E). Instead, it will begin to see it as a high-growth global IP entertainment platform. Such platforms can command P/E ratios of 30-40x or even higher during their growth phase, similar to the valuations Disney or Nintendo received during their high-growth periods.
  • Scale: The multiplier effect of a 3-4x increase in earnings (from the first two points) combined with a 1.5-2x increase in valuation multiple would lead to a 4.5-8x increase in market capitalization. Analysts are already forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 61-67% for the company’s net profit in the coming years, indicating that the earnings growth component is highly achievable.

The realization of this grand blueprint is essentially a bet on the company’s ability to replicate the success of the “Disney model” in a compressed timeframe using modern DTC and digital strategies. Disney took decades to build its empire through a slow evolution from animation to merchandise to theme parks. POP MART is attempting to execute all parts of this playbook simultaneously: global product launches, theme park construction, and digital game development. Its advantage lies in the direct, data-rich relationship it has built with its consumers, something Disney did not have in its early stages. This relationship allows the company to iterate on products faster and to test and scale new entertainment projects in a more capital-efficient manner. The path to five times the value is built on the belief in this modern, accelerated version of the classic IP flywheel model.

Therefore, a fivefold increase in market value is a logical long-term possibility. It requires the company to execute successfully on three fronts: global market penetration, elevating its core IPs into true entertainment brands, and the subsequent re-rating of its valuation multiple by the market. The foundational modules required to achieve this transformation are already in place.

Section 10: The Market’s Blind Spot #

(Question 10: Why doesn’t the market realize this?) #

Despite the extremely positive data and strategic plans, the market’s valuation of POP MART may still not fully reflect its long-term potential. This potential value mismatch may stem from market perception still being stuck on outdated or incomplete narratives.

• Narrative Lag: “Blind Box Fad” vs. “Global IP Platform”
  • The mainstream market view may still primarily define POP MART as a Chinese “blind box” company. This narrative carries certain negative connotations, suggesting its business might be just a domestic trend, vulnerable to changes in consumer tastes and regulatory policies.
  • The market may not have fully digested the speed and scale of the company’s transformation into a diversified, global IP enterprise. The fact that nearly 40% of its revenue comes from international markets is a very recent development and may not yet be fully reflected in the market consensus.
• Skepticism about Cross-Cultural Appeal and IP Longevity
  • Some investors may be skeptical that IPs designed by Chinese artists can achieve the same level of enduring global appeal as characters created by American or Japanese studios. Although the recent global success of Labubu is the strongest rebuttal to this, the market may need to see more such successful cases to be fully convinced.
  • Investors may be concerned about the life cycle of IPs, perhaps remembering the early revenue decline of Molly and questioning whether the company has the ability to effectively manage IP life cycles over decades. The company’s systematic IP management approach is the answer to this, but it is much harder to quantify than quarterly earnings.
• Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Shadows
  • As a Chinese company listed in Hong Kong, POP MART’s stock is inevitably affected by a broader geopolitical risk premium and concerns about the Chinese macroeconomy. These top-down factors can obscure the company’s own excellent fundamentals, leading to a valuation discount regardless of its operational performance.
• Focus on Short-Term Risks
  • The market may be overly focused on short-term risks, such as a potential slowdown in the Chinese consumer market, intensified competition from rivals like TOPTOY, and the execution risks associated with its ambitious expansion plans, while underestimating the enormous scale of its long-term global opportunity.

The primary source of potential alpha lies in the arbitrage between the market’s perception of POP MART as a “Chinese consumer goods company” and the emerging reality of it being a “global entertainment IP company.” Chinese consumer stocks often trade at a valuation discount due to concerns about domestic competition, economic cycles, and regulation. In contrast, global entertainment IP companies (like Disney, Nintendo) enjoy a valuation premium due to their durable, high-margin, globalized revenue streams. POP MART is in the process of transitioning from the former to the latter. The investment opportunity lies in buying when the market is still pricing it primarily with the former narrative, before the market fully recognizes and re-rates it with the latter. The 2024 financial results are the first concrete, large-scale evidence that this transformation is not just a plan, but a reality.

In summary, the market’s potential mispricing may stem from its lag in updating the company’s narrative, its skepticism about the globalization and long-term potential of its IPs, and broader geopolitical concerns. The opportunity exists because the pace of the company’s fundamental transformation seems to be outpacing the speed of market perception and pricing.

Conclusion: Investment Thesis and Final Recommendation #

Comprehensive Analysis #

By applying Baillie Gifford’s “Ten Questions” investment framework, this report reveals that POP MART is an exceptional growth company. It has a vast five-year growth runway (Question 1), a grand ten-year vision to become an entertainment giant (Question 2), and a solid moat built on a proprietary IP and DTC flywheel (Question 3). All of this is supported by an adaptable, founder-driven culture (Question 4) and has established a deep emotional connection with consumers (Question 5). The company’s financial returns are excellent (Question 6) and are poised to continue improving (Question 7). It is rationally allocating capital to seize growth opportunities (Question 8), demonstrating a clear path to exponential value creation (Question 9), which may not yet be fully understood by the market (Question 10).

Investment Thesis #

POP MART is a highly attractive long-term investment target. The company is in the early stages of leveraging its proven IP creation engine to capture a huge share of the multi-hundred-billion-dollar global “Kidult” and entertainment markets. Its high-margin, high-cash-flow business model provides ample “fuel” for this expansion, and the transformation from a Chinese retailer to a global IP platform offers the dual potential for significant earnings growth and a substantial valuation re-rating.

Judgment on the Current Price #

Note: Target price data is based on forecasts as of September 24, 2025, and is for reference only.

Based on the in-depth analysis in this report, POP MART’s current stock price represents a suitable entry point for long-term growth investors. The overwhelming “Strong Buy” consensus rating from analysts and a target price far above the current price further support this positive view. Although the stock has already performed well, considering the enormous scale of the global opportunity, its growth journey is far from over.

Core Risk Warning #

Despite the bright prospects, the investment still faces the following main risks:

1. Execution Risk: The rapid retail expansion globally and entry into new entertainment sectors involve immense management complexity and carry the risk of execution falling short of expectations.
2. IP Risk: Creative output may face depletion, or the company may fail to launch new hit IPs to succeed the current core IP portfolio.
3. Competition Risk: Competition is intensifying from established giants like Bandai and Funko, as well as emerging competitors, in both domestic and international markets.
4. Geopolitical Risk: A significant deterioration in relations between China and major Western markets could hinder its overseas expansion process and affect investor sentiment.